59 lines
2.1 KiB
Markdown
59 lines
2.1 KiB
Markdown
# SPY Bull Put Credit Spread — 2026-07-31 1:30 PM ET
|
||
|
||
**Date:** 2026-07-31
|
||
**Session time:** 1:30 PM ET
|
||
**Asset:** SPY
|
||
**Expiration:** July 31, 2026 (0DTE)
|
||
**Direction:** Bullish — slow grind higher
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Trade specs
|
||
|
||
| Field | Value |
|
||
|---|---|
|
||
| Strategy | Bull Put Credit Spread |
|
||
| Short put (sell) | $740 |
|
||
| Long put (buy) | $738 |
|
||
| Width | $2 |
|
||
| Credit target | ~$0.40–$0.60 |
|
||
| Max profit | credit received (20-30%+ of width with 0DTE theta) |
|
||
| Breakeven | $739.40–$739.60 |
|
||
| SPY price at time | $744.72 |
|
||
| Day range | $737.68 – $746.30 |
|
||
| Time remaining | ~2h 50m |
|
||
|
||
## Thesis
|
||
|
||
SPY is holding the upper 80% of today's range on low volume (39% of average). Low volume + upper register holding often prints a slow grind higher rather than rejection. A credit spread is preferred because theta works in our favor — every minute of 0DTE decay adds to profit. We don't need SPY to rally; we just need it to stay above $740.
|
||
|
||
## Key levels
|
||
|
||
- **Resistance:** $746.30 (today's high), $748 (mid-week), $750 (psychological)
|
||
- **Support:** $741.69 (yesterday's close), $737.68 (today's low)
|
||
|
||
## Entry
|
||
|
||
- Sell $740 / Buy $738 put spread
|
||
- Target credit: $0.40–$0.60 (20-30%+ of width)
|
||
|
||
## Exit plan
|
||
|
||
- **20% profit:** credit of ~$0.50 → sell 50% at 20% back (~$0.10 credit retained)
|
||
- **Runner:** trail remaining 50%, close if bid drops toward breakeven
|
||
- **Stop / defense:** SPY closes below $739 → consider early exit or roll
|
||
- **Max risk:** width minus credit (~$1.40–$1.60/contract)
|
||
|
||
## Why credit spread over debit spread
|
||
|
||
- **Theta works for us** — 0DTE decay accelerates all day, especially after ~3:30 PM
|
||
- Higher probability — spread is well OTM below yesterday's close ($741.69)
|
||
- We profit from the grind *and* from the standstill
|
||
- Debit spread needed active upside; credit spread profits from not failing
|
||
|
||
## Notes
|
||
|
||
- Low volume today may cap upside speed but also reduces downside momentum
|
||
- Theta accelerates sharply in final 2 hours — monitor decay rate after 3:30 PM
|
||
- If volume spikes downward, reassess the $740 support level
|