renamed scan watchlist -> for options
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workflows/scan-watchlist-for-options/CLAUDE.md
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workflows/scan-watchlist-for-options/CLAUDE.md
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# Scan Watchlist ICM Workspace
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This workspace orchestrates a multi-stage watchlist confluence scan for trading ideas.
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The agent follows the numbered stages to filter tickers, analyze confluence, construct trade plans, and produce a summary card.
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Folder structure:
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- CLAUDE.md (Layer 0): workspace identity
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- CONTEXT.md (Layer 1): workspace-level routing
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- stages/: numbered stage folders
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- 00_clarify/: ask key questions
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- 01_broad_filter/: broad filter across tickers
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- 02_confluence_analysis/: confluence analysis on shortlist
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- 03_trade_plan/: trade plan construction
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- 04_summary_card/: summary card creation
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- _config/: Layer 3 reference material (stable across runs)
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- shared/: Layer 3 shared references
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- Each stage's output/ holds Layer 4 working artifacts for handoff to next stage.
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workflows/scan-watchlist-for-options/CONTEXT.md
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workflows/scan-watchlist-for-options/CONTEXT.md
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# Workspace Context: Watchlist Confluence Scan
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## Routing
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Given the goal to scan tickers for trade setups with confluence, the workflow proceeds through stages:
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1. **00_clarify** - Ask clarifying questions about long/short bias, time horizon, asset class focus.
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2. **01_broad_filter** - Perform broad filter across all tickers to narrow candidates.
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3. **02_confluence_analysis** - Analyze confluence factors for each candidate.
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4. **03_trade_plan** - Construct detailed trade plans for top setups.
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5. **04_summary_card** - Produce a structured summary card of setups and sitting-on-hands list.
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## Shared Resources
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- _config/: Contains references such as ticker list, default parameters.
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- shared/: May contain common tools or scripts (if any).
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The agent should read the stage's CONTEXT.md for detailed inputs, process, and outputs.
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# Trade Plan Template
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**Symbol:**
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**Side:** (Long/Short)
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**Entry Zone:**
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**Stop:**
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**Targets:** T1: , T2: , T3:
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**Time Horizon:**
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**Rationale:**
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**Invalidation Condition:**
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**Options Structure (if applicable):**
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- Credit spread strikes:
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- Bid-ask spread:
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- Time decay:
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5
workflows/scan-watchlist-for-options/shared/260817.csv
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workflows/scan-watchlist-for-options/shared/260817.csv
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OAMI
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IPST
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IVF
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EYPT
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TRUG
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2
workflows/scan-watchlist-for-options/shared/260818.csv
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2
workflows/scan-watchlist-for-options/shared/260818.csv
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XOS
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AMLX
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workflows/scan-watchlist-for-options/shared/cha-martin-1.csv
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workflows/scan-watchlist-for-options/shared/cha-martin-1.csv
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AAPL
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UPS
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UBER
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TSM
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TSLS
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TSLA
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TGT
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TAN
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SQQQ
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workflows/scan-watchlist-for-options/shared/cha-martin-2.csv
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workflows/scan-watchlist-for-options/shared/cha-martin-2.csv
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SPX
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SOXL
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SEDG
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SBUX
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RUN
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ROKU
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RIVN
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RBLX
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QQQ
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AAPL
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UPS
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UBER
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TSM
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TSLS
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TSLA
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TGT
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TAN
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SQQQ
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SPY
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SPX
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SOXL
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SEDG
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SBUX
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RUN
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ROKU
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RIVN
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RBLX
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QQQ
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PYPL
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PLTR
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PINS
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PANW
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NVDA
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NKE
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NFLX
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MU
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MSFT
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META
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KRE
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INTC
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HOOD
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HD
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GOOGL
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GOOG
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FSLR
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FDX
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ETSY
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ENPH
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DIS
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DE
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DDOG
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CRWD
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CRM
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COST
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COIN
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CAT
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BITO
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BABA
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BA
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ARKK
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AMZN
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AMD
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AFRM
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ADBE
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## Plan: Watchlist Confluence Scan
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### Phase 1 — Broad filter across all 54 tickers (~5-8 tool calls)
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**1. Market context snapshot**
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- Pull `SPY` and `QQQ` snapshots to establish the day's market regime (trend, range, key levels). Everything filters through this — no short setups in a strong uptrend day, no longs into a breakdown.
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**2. Batch screen for daily structure**
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- Run a Finviz scan (or equivalent) filtering for:
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- Price within ~3% of the 50-day MA (your stated preference)
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- Consolidation/base pattern or pullback setup
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- Above/below VWAP context
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- This narrows 54 → likely 10-15 candidates worth deeper review.
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**3. Parallel ticker snapshots**
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- Pull `snapshot` data for the ~10-15 candidates from Phase 2 to get:
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- Current price, day range, volume vs average
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- Pre-market action (gappers up/down)
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- % change from 50MA (if available from scan data)
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### Phase 2 — Confluence analysis on the shortlist (~3-4 calls per ticker × 5-8 tickers)
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For each candidate, evaluate these confluence factors:
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| Factor | Tool / Source | What I'm looking for |
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|--------|--------------|----------------------|
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| **Daily chart structure** | `chart_command` — load symbol, D timeframe | Trend direction, price vs 50MA/200MA, support/resistance zones, base/consolidation patterns |
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| **Intraday setup** | `chart_command` — 3-min or 5-min chart | VWAP relationship, pre-market gap vs overnight range, opening range break potential |
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| **Volume profile** | `chart_command` — volume indicator | Above-average volume confirming the move, or thin volume suggesting trap |
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| **Options flow / unusual activity** | `mcp` → `ttg-options` chain snapshot | Unusual call/put volume, max pain, gamma exposure — institutional positioning signal |
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| **Relative strength** | Visual chart comparison | Is it holding while the sector/market sells? That's a Mike-style confluence flag |
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### Phase 3 — Trade plan construction on top setups (2-4 tickers max)
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For the 2-4 tickers with the strongest confluence:
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**1. Chart the setup**
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- Load the ticker on AI chart with overlays: VWAP, 50 EMA, key S/R levels drawn
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- Identify the exact entry zone, stop level, and target levels (T1/T2/T3)
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**2. Draft the trade plan**
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- Symbol, side, entry zone, stop, targets, time horizon
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- **Rationale**: confluence factors that align (daily structure + intraday trigger + flow confirmation)
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- **What invalidates it**: the one condition that kills the thesis
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**3. Options structure**
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- Given your preference for credit spreads, evaluate:
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- Credit spread strikes (defined risk, collect premium)
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- Bid-ask spread width (< $0.25 preferred for scalps)
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- Time decay working in your favor
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### Phase 4 — Summary card
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Deliver a structured card showing:
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- Top 3-5 setups ranked by confluence score
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- Each with: setup type, entry/stop/targets, key confluence factors, risk level
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- The "sitting on hands" list — tickers that looked okay but lacked a decisive edge
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---
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### Estimated tool call count
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- **Phase 1:** ~8-10 calls
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- **Phase 2:** ~15-25 calls (depending on shortlist size)
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- **Phase 3:** ~5-8 calls
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- **Phase 4:** 1 card build call
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**Total: ~30-45 tool calls** — this is a substantive scan. I'd recommend we do Phase 1 first to see the shortlist, then you can approve Phase 2 on the narrowed candidates rather than burning through credits on all 54.
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### Key question before I proceed:
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1. **Long only, or long + short?** You've expressed interest in both — what's the bias today?
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2. **Time horizon:** 0DTE intraday scalps, or day/swing holds?
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3. **Asset class focus:** Equities only, or include ETFs (SPY/QQQ/TAN/SOXL/SQQQ/KRE) in the confluence review?
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# Stage 00 Clarify: Ask Key Questions
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## Inputs
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- (none) - Start of workflow
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## Process
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Ask the user the following key questions to configure the scan:
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1. Long only, or long + short? (Specify bias: long, short, or both)
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2. Time horizon: 0DTE intraday scalps, or day/swing holds?
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3. Asset class focus: Equities only, or include ETFs (SPY/QQQ/TAN/SOXL/SQQQ/KRE) in the confluence review?
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4. Watchlist file: Enter the CSV filename (without path) located in the shared/ folder (e.g., cha-martin-watchlist.ms.csv or vertical-spread.csv).
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Record the answers in a markdown file.
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## Outputs
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- user_preferences.md -> output/
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# Scan Preferences — run 2026-08-18 (Tue) morning, ~8:03 AM ET (pre-market)
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## Config (confirmed by operator 2026-08-18 ~8:03 AM ET)
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1. **Bias:** both — long + short setups. Operator clarified "both" = **single-leg calls and single-leg puts** in the options evaluation.
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2. **Time horizon:** shortest DTE possible = **0DTE — expiring today, Tue 2026-08-18** (pre-market run; market opens 9:30 AM ET, ~1.5h to regular open).
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3. **Asset class focus:** Equities only (both list members are equities; no ETFs in this list).
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4. **Watchlist file:** `260818.csv` (2 tickers)
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## Tickers (2)
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| Ticker | Type |
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|--------|------|
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| XOS | equity |
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| AMLX | equity |
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## Standing preferences carried from memory
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- Near-50MA confluence: tickers within ~1% of 50MA flagged as strong confluence (broad filter uses ~3% per stage design).
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- Options structure this run: **single-leg calls AND single-leg puts** (operator override of the usual credit-spread preference).
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- Bid-ask spread ≤ $0.25 preferred for 0DTE scalps; avoid wide-spread strikes.
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- VWAP is the standard intraday reference; pullbacks to VWAP in rising action = long trigger; rejection into resistance = short trigger.
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- Multi-target exits (T1/T2/T3) with partials; stop-tighten as targets hit.
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- User polls for progress — keep status updates visible between stages.
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## Notes
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- Pre-market run: daily structure from completed prior sessions (Aug 17 close); intraday VWAP/orange-range setup will form at the 9:30 open. Plans should specify pre-market entries where quotes allow, plus open-auction triggers.
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- List ≤15 → stage 01 passes full list through unchanged (no triage cut).
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# Stage 01 Broad Filter: Curated List Triage
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Note: the input watchlist is always operator-curated (typically 5-50 tickers), never
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a broad-market universe. This stage is a lightweight triage pass on that list, not
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a market-wide scan — don't run Finviz-style universe screens here.
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## Inputs
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- Layer 4 (working): ../00_clarify/output/user_preferences.md
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(contains the watchlist filename to use)
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## Process
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1. Read user preferences to determine bias, time horizon, and asset class focus.
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2. Read the watchlist filename from user_preferences.md, then load the full curated ticker list from that CSV in the shared/ folder.
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3. Establish market context by pulling snapshot data for SPY and QQQ to determine the day's regime (trend, range, key levels). Record this regime read in the output so stage 02 can reuse it instead of re-pulling.
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4. Pull batch snapshot data (price vs 50-day MA, VWAP position, basic volume/range) for every ticker on the list in a single batch request — not one ticker at a time.
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5. Decide whether triage is needed, based on list size:
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- **List ≤15 tickers:** skip filtering. The operator has already curated it — pass the full list through unchanged as the shortlist.
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- **List >15 tickers (up to ~50):** apply lightweight triage to cut to a working shortlist (target ~10-15) using:
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* Price within ~3% of the 50-day MA, or a clear pullback/base pattern
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* VWAP alignment with the stated bias (above VWAP for longs, below for shorts; either if both)
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* Drop tickers with no clear structure / no signal
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6. Record the resulting shortlist, with a one-line reason for any ticker dropped in the >15 case.
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## Outputs
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- shortlist.md -> output/ (includes the SPY/QQQ regime notes from step 3)
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# Broad Filter Output (Shortlist) — run 2026-08-18 (Tue)
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Input: `shared/260818.csv` → **XOS, AMLX** (2 tickers).
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List ≤ 15 → per workflow rule, **skip triage; full list passes through unchanged**.
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Data as of 8:10–8:14 AM ET, 2026-08-18, pre-market (`market_status: early_trading`). All data TTG MCP only.
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## Market regime (SPY/QQQ)
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| Ticker | PM price | Chg vs prev close | PM VWAP | Notes |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| SPY | 769.48 | **−0.41%** (prev 772.67) | 774.17 | PM range 772.51–776.78 |
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| QQQ | 721.61 | **−1.13%** (prev 729.87) | 731.74 | PM range 729.27–734.58 |
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**Regime: risk-off pre-market, tech-led** (QQQ ~2.7x SPY's decline). Idiosyncratic gappers in the watchlist = relative strength into a weak tape.
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## Watchlist snapshot
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| Ticker | Name | PM price | Chg | Prev close | AH chg | PM VWAP | PM bid/ask | PM/AH vol | Regime fit |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| XOS | Xos, Inc. | 4.6682 | **+123.35%** | 2.09 | +87.08% (→~3.90) | 3.7622 | 4.66/4.67 ($0.01) | **28.0M shares** (normal ~0.1–0.5M) | Extreme relative strength |
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| AMLX | Amylyx Pharma | 27.46 (→28.14 by 8:14) | **+28.12%** | 21.43 | +14.28% (→~24.5) | 22.3694 | 27.45/27.60 ($0.15) | 1.27M (8/17 reg sess; last-min PM 42.4K sh) | Strong relative strength |
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## Catalyst check (Benzinga, via ttg-benzinga `benzinga_news`)
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- **XOS** — First US Air Force contract: prototype OTA for a deployable mobile battery-energy-storage / EV-charging solution, announced Monday 8/17 after close. AH +86.6% → $3.90, continued to $4.67+ PM. Micro-cap ($29.7M mkt cap). [Xos (XOS) Stock Rallies Over 86% After Hours, 6:04 ET]
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- **AMLX** — Phase 3 LUCIDITY topline results **announced 8:00 AM ET today: MET primary endpoint** (55% reduction in L2/L3 hypoglycemic events vs placebo, p=0.000003), all secondary endpoints met, NDA planned by year-end, Breakthrough Therapy designation. Halted 6:55:57 AM ET, resumed 7:25 AM ET. [11:08 UTC headline]
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## Daily structure (54 daily bars each, TTG `stocks_aggs_custom_bars`)
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| Ticker | Last close (8/17) | MA20 | MA50 | 54d high / low | Structure read |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| XOS | 2.09 | 2.33 | 2.73 | 8.27 (6/3 IPO) / 1.85 (8/14) | Post-IPO downtrend base 1.85–2.75 → +123% gap **through** all structure; extended, not MA-confluent. June supply zones: 3.58–4.64, 5.20–5.48, 6.20 |
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| AMLX | 21.43 | 20.91 | 18.29 | 24.60 (8/7 ATH) / 12.62 (7/1) | Multi-month uptrend → PM 27.5–28.1 = **new all-time high breakout**, trend-aligned, extended above MAs |
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## Options availability (the "shortest DTE" question, answered)
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| Ticker | 0DTE (8/18) | Nearest listed exp | Detail |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| XOS | **Does not exist — no listed options at all** (full chain query empty) | n/a | **Equity-only** for this run |
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| AMLX | Empty for 8/18 | **2026-08-21 (Fri) = 1 DTE** | Strikes $1 apart. 8/21 OI around money: calls 20C/361, 28C/194, 33C/178, 35C/101, 40C/104; puts 21P/93, 24P/19, 25P/14 — **zero put OI above 25P**. All quotes 0/0 until 9:30 open. |
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**Operator config "shortest DTE possible": XOS = equity only (no options market). AMLX = 8/21 weekly (1 DTE) — that is the shortest DTE that exists for this name.**
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## Shortlist (pass-through, unchanged)
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1. **XOS** — equity long/short only
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2. **AMLX** — single-leg calls and puts on 8/21 weekly + equity
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Both pass to Stage 02. Nothing excluded.
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# Stage 02 Confluence Analysis: Evaluate Candidates
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## Inputs
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- Layer 4 (working): ../01_broad_filter/output/shortlist.md
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- Layer 4 (working): ../00_clarify/output/user_preferences.md
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(contains the watchlist filename to use)
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## Process
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For each ticker in the shortlist, evaluate the following confluence factors:
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First, read the watchlist filename from user_preferences.md and load the full ticker list from shared/<filename> as reference (if needed).
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1. Daily chart structure: load symbol, D timeframe to assess trend, price vs 50MA/200MA, support/resistance zones, base/consolidation patterns.
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2. Intraday setup: load 3-min or 5-min chart to examine VWAP relationship, pre-market gap vs overnight range, opening range break potential.
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3. Volume profile: check volume indicator for above-average volume confirming move or thin volume suggesting trap.
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4. Options flow / unusual activity: use MCP → ttg-options chain snapshot to spot unusual call/put volume, max pain, gamma exposure.
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5. Relative strength: visually compare chart to sector/market to see if holding while sector/market sells.
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Record analysis for each ticker, noting which factors align.
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## Outputs
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- confluence_analysis.md -> output/
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# Confluence Analysis — run 2026-08-18 (Tue)
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As of 8:25 AM ET pre-market. All data TTG MCP (ttg-stocks, ttg-options, ttg-benzinga).
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Operator config: **single-leg calls AND single-leg puts, shortest DTE possible, equities**.
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Confluence dimensions per ticker: (1) catalyst strength/verifiability, (2) daily structure, (3) pre-market/gap structure, (4) volume confirmation, (5) options availability + liquidity, (6) relative strength vs tape.
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---
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## 1. AMLX — Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (score 5/6) — TOP SETUP
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**Catalyst (✓✓):** Phase 3 LUCIDITY (avexitide, post-bariatric hypoglycemia) topline announced 8:00 AM ET today — **primary endpoint MET: 55% reduction in composite L2/L3 hypoglycemic events vs placebo, p=0.000003; all secondary endpoints met (SMBG, CGM, L3); well-tolerated; NDA planned by year-end; Breakthrough Therapy designation.** This is the strongest category of catalyst (confirmed data pass with path to filing), not a rumor or contract-terms-not-disclosed story.
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|
||||
**Daily structure (✓):** Multi-month uptrend 12.62 (7/1 low) → 24.60 (8/7 prior ATH) → PM 27.5–28.1 = **new all-time high breakout**. Above MA20 (20.91) by +31% and MA50 (18.29) by +53% — extended, but every day since 8/1 has closed higher or flat; trend-aligned, no overhead structure between PM price and open air. Extension is a risk, not a confluence (fails the user's ~1%-of-50MA filter — noted honestly: this is a breakout play, not a 50MA confluence play).
|
||||
|
||||
**Pre-market structure (✓):** +28.1% PM. Halted 6:55:57 AM ET on news, resumed 7:25 AM. PM VWAP 22.37 ≈ 8/17 regular-session VWAP (22.37) = first support confluence; prior ATH 24.60 = second support. Price (28.14 at 8:14) is well above PM VWAP = buying on strength, not a gap-fill setup.
|
||||
|
||||
**Volume (✓ with caveat):** 8/17 regular session 1.27M sh (above its 0.8–2M normal, below its 3.5M data-day level of 8/6). PM tape: 42.4K sh in the last minute alone. No full PM volume total in the snapshot — flagged; expect 3–5M+ on the open given the data day.
|
||||
|
||||
**Options (◐):** Shortest DTE = **8/21 weekly (1 DTE)** — no 0DTE exists for AMLX. 8/21 OI: **28C 194, 33C 178, 35C 101, 20C 361** (liquid call side); puts: **21P 93, 24P 19, 25P 14, zero OI above 25P** (put side thin — a single-leg put only works at ≤25P or 21P). All quotes 0/0 pre-market — **bid-ask ≤ $0.25 screen must be verified at the 9:30 open** before any option entry.
|
||||
|
||||
**Relative strength (✓✓):** QQQ −1.13% / SPY −0.41% PM vs AMLX +28% — fully idiosyncratic strength in a risk-off tape.
|
||||
|
||||
**Verdict:** Long-bias, calls primary. Put plan is a low-conviction fade of a data beat — presented per "both" config but explicitly ranked low.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 2. XOS — Xos, Inc. (score 4.5/6)
|
||||
|
||||
**Catalyst (✓✓ real, ◐ size-unknown):** First-ever US Air Force contract — prototype OTA (Other Transaction Agreement) for deployable mobile charging / battery energy storage for electrified support equipment. **Terms not disclosed** (prototype OTA = smaller, non-binding-style award vs a full contract). Announced 8/17 AH. Real strategic catalyst for a $29.7M mkt-cap EV-truck company, but magnitude is unquantified — size the position accordingly.
|
||||
|
||||
**Daily structure (◐):** Post-IPO downtrend since 6/3 (8.27 high → 1.85 low on 8/14); +123% PM gap reclaims the entire base. **Not** MA-confluent (71% above MA50 2.73, 101% above MA20 2.33). Overhead supply from the June breakdown: **3.58–4.64 zone (heavy volume), 5.20–5.48, 6.20–8.27**. PM price 4.67 has already re-entered the top of the June supply zone — that's resistance, not open air (the key structural difference vs AMLX).
|
||||
|
||||
**Pre-market structure (✓):** +123% from 2.09. AH cluster 3.90–3.91 = first support; PM VWAP 3.76 = second. Price 4.67 > PM VWAP = strength, but the gap from 2.09–2.16 is wide: gap-fill risk (3.38 midpoint, 2.16 full fill) is the standing threat on any dip.
|
||||
|
||||
**Volume (✓✓):** **28.0M shares** traded across 8/17 extended + 8/18 PM vs normal 100K–500K — 50–100x normal. The strongest volume confirmation of the day.
|
||||
|
||||
**Options (✗):** **No listed options exist for XOS** (full chain query empty). The "single-leg call/put, shortest DTE" config is **not executable for XOS** — equity only. This is a workflow fact, stated plainly.
|
||||
|
||||
**Relative strength (✓✓):** +123% into a −1.13% QQQ tape.
|
||||
|
||||
**Verdict:** Long-bias gap-and-go in equity (momentum entry or pullback to 4.20–4.50). Short variant = fade into 5.20–5.48 June supply — aggressive (fading first-contract micro-cap news), presented per config, ranked low.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Cross-cutting
|
||||
|
||||
- **Tape headwind:** risk-off PM (QQQ −1.13%) — both names hold up anyway = genuine idiosyncratic demand. Weak tape raises the chance of a post-open dip into both names' support zones (which is where the pullback entries live).
|
||||
- **Liquidity check:** XOS spread $0.01 ✓, AMLX stock spread $0.15 ✓ (both ≤ $0.25). AMLX option quotes unknown until 9:30 — gated.
|
||||
- **Halt risk:** AMLX halted 6:55–7:25 AM — first 15 min after open can be unstable (auction-driven). Enter AMLX options after the first 5-min bar closes, not in the opening print.
|
||||
- **No 0DTE exists for either name** — the workflow's "shortest DTE" resolves to: XOS equity-only; AMLX 1-DTE (8/21).
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
|
||||
# Stage 03 Trade Plan: Construct Detailed Trade Plans
|
||||
|
||||
## Inputs
|
||||
- Layer 4 (working): ../02_confluence_analysis/output/confluence_analysis.md
|
||||
- Layer 3 (reference): _config/trade_plan_template.md (optional template for structuring plans)
|
||||
|
||||
## Process
|
||||
1. From the confluence analysis, select the top 2-4 tickers with the strongest confluence.
|
||||
2. For each selected ticker:
|
||||
- Load the ticker on AI chart with overlays: VWAP, 50 EMA, key support/resistance levels.
|
||||
- Identify the exact entry zone, stop level, and target levels (T1/T2/T3).
|
||||
- Draft a trade plan including:
|
||||
* Symbol, side, entry zone, stop, targets, time horizon
|
||||
* Rationale: confluence factors that align (daily structure + intraday trigger + flow confirmation)
|
||||
* What invalidates it: the one condition that kills the thesis
|
||||
- Given preference for credit spreads, evaluate options structure:
|
||||
* Credit spread strikes (defined risk, collect premium)
|
||||
* Bid-ask spread width (< $0.25 preferred for scalps)
|
||||
* Time decay working in your favor
|
||||
3. Compile all trade plans into a single document.
|
||||
|
||||
## Outputs
|
||||
- trade_plans.md -> output/
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
|
||||
# Trade Plans — run 2026-08-18 (Tue)
|
||||
|
||||
Config: **single-leg calls AND single-leg puts, shortest DTE possible, equities.**
|
||||
Shortest-DTE resolution: **XOS has no listed options (equity only). AMLX nearest = 8/21 Friday weekly (1 DTE).**
|
||||
All quotes TTG MCP, pre-market 8:10–8:33 AM ET. Option bid/ask = 0/0 until 9:30 — **every option entry is gated on a live quote with spread ≤ $0.25 at/after the open.**
|
||||
|
||||
Ranks: ★ conviction, 5 = highest.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## PLAN 1 — AMLX 8/21/26 28C (long single-leg call) ★★★★★ — PRIMARY
|
||||
|
||||
| Field | Value |
|
||||
|---|---|
|
||||
| Instrument | AMLX 2026-08-21 Call 28.00 (OI 194 — most liquid ATM strike) |
|
||||
| Side / structure | Buy to open, **single-leg**, 1 DTE |
|
||||
| Thesis | Confirmed Phase 3 LUCIDITY pass (55% reduction, p=0.000003, all secondary endpoints, NDA by year-end, Breakthrough Therapy) + new-ATH breakout + relative strength into a −1.13% QQQ tape. IV event already happened — residual risk is stock price, not event. |
|
||||
| Entry trigger | After the **first 5-min bar closes (~9:35 ET)**: AMLX ≥ **$27.00** (holds above prior ATH 24.60 and PM VWAP 22.37) **and** 28C spread ≤ $0.25. Do NOT buy the opening print (name halted 6:55–7:25 AM; auction unstable). |
|
||||
| Alt strike | 33C (OI 178) if 28C premium too wide — higher beta, needs AMLX ~+18% by Friday. |
|
||||
| Invalidation (stop) | 5-min close < **$24.50** (prior ATH) → exit. **Time stop:** 11:00 ET, AMLX < $26.00 → exit (1 DTE theta ramps hard post-lunch). |
|
||||
| T1 | Option +50% → sell ½ |
|
||||
| T2 | Option +100% → sell ½ of remainder |
|
||||
| T3 | Trail remainder on 5-min structure through 2:30 PM; if AMLX > $30 at 2:30, can hold to Friday expiry (NDA narrative) |
|
||||
| Risk note | New-ATH + 28% extended move = chase risk; the $24.50 invalidation is the whole trade. If AMLX opens < $26, skip the plan entirely. |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## PLAN 2 — AMLX 8/21/26 24P (long single-leg put) ★☆☆☆☆ — CONDITIONAL ONLY
|
||||
|
||||
| Field | Value |
|
||||
|---|---|
|
||||
| Instrument | AMLX 2026-08-21 Put 24.00 (OI 19 — thin; size small). Alt: 21P (OI 93, deep OTM, only works on a violent reversal). |
|
||||
| Side / structure | Buy to open, single-leg, 1 DTE |
|
||||
| Thesis | Sell-the-news rejection at all-time highs after a +28% PM: fade toward PM VWAP 22.37 / old ATH 24.60. |
|
||||
| Entry trigger | **Conditional:** AMLX opens **≥ $29.50** AND fails to print a new high within 15 min of the open (lower 15-min high on the 5-min) AND 24P spread ≤ $0.25. Otherwise the plan does not exist. |
|
||||
| Invalidation (stop) | 5-min close above the **opening print** (reclaim of PM-high momentum) → exit. Time stop 11:30 ET if AMLX still > $26.50. |
|
||||
| T1 | AMLX $26.00 → sell ½ |
|
||||
| T2 | AMLX $24.60 (prior ATH) → sell ½ of remainder |
|
||||
| T3 | AMLX $23.60 / trail |
|
||||
| Risk note | **Counter-trend fade of a confirmed data beat — low conviction by construction.** Included to complete the "calls and puts" config; expect it to lose in the base case. If you only take one AMLX side, it's the call. |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## PLAN 3 — XOS equity long (gap-and-go) ★★★★☆
|
||||
|
||||
| Field | Value |
|
||||
|---|---|
|
||||
| Instrument | **XOS common stock — equity only (no options market exists for this name)** |
|
||||
| Side / structure | Long, intraday |
|
||||
| Thesis | First-ever USAF contract (prototype OTA, terms undisclosed) + 28M-shr pre-market/AH volume (50–100x normal) + PM already reclaimed the top of the June supply zone (4.64). Micro-cap $29.7M mkt cap → violent both ways. |
|
||||
| Entry A (pullback) | **$4.20–4.50** fill zone (above PM VWAP 3.76 and AH cluster 3.90), only if 5-min bars hold ≥ $4.00 |
|
||||
| Entry B (momentum) | 5-min close > **$4.80** on expanding volume |
|
||||
| Invalidation (stop) | 5-min close < **$3.90** (AH cluster) → out. Hard stop from Entry A: $3.85 (−14%); from Entry B use $4.15 (−13%) or the 3.90 rule, whichever is tighter |
|
||||
| T1 | **$5.00** round → sell ⅓ |
|
||||
| T2 | **$5.20–5.48** (June supply: 6/8 high 5.20, 6/5 high 5.48) → sell ⅓ |
|
||||
| T3 | **$6.20** (June high) or trail on 5-min structure into the close |
|
||||
| Risk note | OTA terms not disclosed → catalyst magnitude unknown; size for a micro-cap. Wide stop is structural here — halve position size vs a normal stop distance. Gap-fill (3.38 midpoint) is the failure mode; the 3.90 invalidation guards it. |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## PLAN 4 — XOS equity short (fade the pop) ★★☆☆☆ — CONDITIONAL ONLY
|
||||
|
||||
| Field | Value |
|
||||
|---|---|
|
||||
| Instrument | XOS common stock (equity only) |
|
||||
| Side / structure | Short, intraday |
|
||||
| Thesis | Fade into the June breakdown supply **$5.20–5.50** (5.48 = 6/5 high; 5.20 = 6/8 high) — the first real overhead wall after open air. |
|
||||
| Entry trigger | **Conditional:** rejection wick into $5.20–5.50 (15-min high-lower-high on the 5-min + volume contraction). No entry on the first touch — needs a visible rejection. |
|
||||
| Invalidation (stop) | 5-min close > **$5.75** → out (first supply shelf broken = open air to 6.20/8.27) |
|
||||
| T1 | $4.67 (PM area / round) → cover ⅓ |
|
||||
| T2 | $4.00 → cover ⅓ |
|
||||
| T3 | $3.90 (AH cluster) / trail |
|
||||
| Risk note | Fading a first-contract micro-cap on real government news is a counter-current trade — take only with a clean rejection signal, and never average a loser here. |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Execution gates (all plans)
|
||||
|
||||
1. 9:30 open: verify AMLX option quotes live (bid/ask, ≤ $0.25) before Plan 1/2 entries — pre-market quotes are 0/0 and meaningless.
|
||||
2. Do not enter AMLX in the first 5 minutes (halt history 6:55→7:25 AM).
|
||||
3. Market is risk-off (SPY −0.41%, QQQ −1.13%): pullback entries (Plan 1 trigger ≥27.00, Plan 3 Entry A) are the higher-probability fills; momentum entries only on strength confirmation.
|
||||
4. One position per name at a time. If Plan 1 (AMLX call) and Plan 2 (AMLX put) conditions ever both appear — they won't; they are mutually exclusive by design.
|
||||
5. Nothing here is a recorded plan — per workflow, plans become binding only if the operator picks one and we record it via the trade-workflow.
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
|
||||
# Stage 04 Summary Card: Produce Final Scan Summary
|
||||
|
||||
## Inputs
|
||||
- Layer 4 (working): ../03_trade_plan/output/trade_plans.md
|
||||
- Layer 4 (working): ../02_confluence_analysis/output/confluence_analysis.md (for sitting-on-hands list)
|
||||
- Layer 4 (working): ../01_broad_filter/output/shortlist.md (optional reference)
|
||||
|
||||
## Process
|
||||
1. Review the trade plans and confluence analysis to rank setups by confluence score.
|
||||
2. Select the top 3-5 setups.
|
||||
3. For each selected setup, extract:
|
||||
- Setup type (e.g., pullback, breakout, etc.)
|
||||
- Entry zone, stop level, target levels (T1/T2/T3)
|
||||
- Key confluence factors that aligned
|
||||
- Risk level (based on stop distance, volatility, etc.)
|
||||
4. Compile a "sitting on hands" list: tickers from the shortlist that showed some promise but lacked a decisive edge (note reasons).
|
||||
5. Produce a structured summary card in markdown format.
|
||||
|
||||
## Outputs
|
||||
- summary_card.md -> output/
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
|
||||
# Summary Card — scan-watchlist run 2026-08-18 (Tue)
|
||||
|
||||
**Input:** XOS, AMLX (260818.csv) · **Config:** single-leg calls AND puts, shortest DTE, equities · **Data as of:** ~8:33 AM ET pre-market (TTG MCP only)
|
||||
|
||||
## One-liner
|
||||
Both watchlist names gapped up hard on confirmed catalysts into a risk-off tape (QQQ −1.13%): **AMLX passed its Phase 3 LUCIDITY trial** (55% reduction, p=0.000003, NDA by year-end) and **XOS landed its first USAF contract** (prototype OTA, terms undisclosed).
|
||||
|
||||
## ⚠️ The "shortest DTE" answer (important)
|
||||
- **XOS: no options market exists at all** → equity-only plans.
|
||||
- **AMLX: no 0DTE — shortest listed exp is 8/21 Friday (1 DTE).** Plans built on that weekly.
|
||||
|
||||
## Ranked setups
|
||||
|
||||
| # | Setup | Instrument | Entry | Stop/invalidation | Targets | Conviction |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 1 | **AMLX data-day long** | 8/21 **28C** (OI 194) | ≥ $27.00 after first 5-min bar, spread ≤ $0.25 | 5-min close < $24.50; or < $26 by 11:00 | opt +50% / +100% / trail | ★★★★★ |
|
||||
| 2 | **XOS gap-and-go** | equity | A: $4.20–4.50 pullback (hold ≥ $4.00) · B: 5-min close > $4.80 | 5-min close < $3.90 | $5.00 / $5.20–5.48 / $6.20 | ★★★★☆ |
|
||||
| 3 | **XOS fade** (conditional) | equity short | rejection into $5.20–5.50 only | 5-min close > $5.75 | $4.67 / $4.00 / $3.90 | ★★☆☆☆ |
|
||||
| 4 | **AMLX sell-the-news** (conditional) | 8/21 **24P** (OI 19, thin) | opens ≥ $29.50 AND fails new-high within 15 min | reclaim of opening print | $26.00 / $24.60 / $23.60 | ★☆☆☆☆ |
|
||||
|
||||
## Sitting on hands (not recommended today)
|
||||
- **AMLX put as a first trade** — fading a confirmed Phase 3 beat is the lowest-probability side of the day; Plan 4 exists only for a visible open-rejection scenario.
|
||||
- **XOS short without rejection** — first-contract micro-cap on real government news; no fading the first touch of 5.20–5.50.
|
||||
- **Chasing either name if it opens extended past its trigger without the confirmation bar** — risk-off tape makes the pullback fills the better entries.
|
||||
|
||||
## Key levels cheat-sheet
|
||||
- **AMLX:** 28.14 PM last · 27.00 (entry gate) · 24.60 (old ATH = stop zone) · 22.37 (PM VWAP) · 21.43 (8/17 close)
|
||||
- **XOS:** 4.67 PM · 3.90 (AH cluster = invalidation) · 3.76 (PM VWAP) · 5.20–5.48 (June supply) · 6.20 (June high) · 3.38 (gap midpoint, worst case)
|
||||
- **Tape:** SPY 769.48 (−0.41%) · QQQ 721.61 (−1.13%) — risk-off backdrop
|
||||
|
||||
## Execution gates
|
||||
1. AMLX option quotes are 0/0 pre-market — **verify live spread ≤ $0.25 after 9:30** before any option entry.
|
||||
2. No AMLX entry in the first 5 minutes (6:55–7:25 AM halt history).
|
||||
3. XOS is equity-only — "single-leg call/put" is not executable for this name; say so if asked.
|
||||
4. Nothing here is a recorded/binding plan — pick a plan and it gets recorded via the trade workflow first.
|
||||
|
||||
**Stage artifacts:** `01_broad_filter/output/shortlist.md` · `02_confluence_analysis/output/confluence_analysis.md` · `03_trade_plan/output/trade_plans.md` · this card.
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user