var - backtest related and spy runbook

spy-0dte-scalp-runbook.md

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+# SPY 0DTE Scalp Runbook — E2E Fast Path
+*Built from live execution 2026-08-28 (spy-1787942969793, closed un-filled at 3:00 wall). Companion lessons live in MEMORY.md: record_plan v2 schema, arm-card flow, ttg-options endpoint patterns.*
+
+## The speed rule
+**Never discover inside a trade window.** Design + record the plan BEFORE the intended entry window; arm = one line. First-ever run took ~7 min for design→record (3 schema validation iterations) + unresolved arm-card surfacing = whole window lost. With this runbook: **~2 min to recorded plan, one line to arm.**
+
+## 1. Pre-stage (do this 5+ min before the window)
+- Fresh SPY snapshot (built-in `snapshot` tool) — price, day OHLC, VWAP.
+- Direction call: price vs VWAP + day-low/high structure. Trend-day tape → trade the break (continuation), not the bounce. Mid-range chop → stand down.
+- Liquidity check (both expiries, Friday rule):
+  - `ttg-options` → `options_snapshot_chain`, params: `underlyingAsset: "SPY"`, `contract_type: "put"|"call"`, `expiration_date: "2026-08-28"` (EXACT string; range objects `{"gte":...}` = HTTP 500), `limit: 250`, `sort: "strike_price"`.
+  - 0DTE near-money: 1–2¢ spreads, 300–600K vol = elite. Next-week: 2–3¢ spreads but premium ~$4 → +20% in 15 min needs ~$1.60 SPY move vs ~$0.30 on 0DTE. 0DTE is the 15-min vehicle; next-week is for plays/swings.
+- Vehicle pick: ATM-ish strike, delta −0.4 to −0.5 at expected trigger price, spread ≤ 2¢.
+
+## 2. Record the plan (exact verified v2 shape)
+`ttg_trade_workflow_record_plan` — template (from the call that validated):
+```
+brokerId: "tos-paper", connectedBrokerPackId: "tos-paper",
+accountCode: "D-67336185"        // 185; "D-67336186" = 186
+assetClass: "option", symbol: "SPY", side: "buy",
+tradeStyle: "scalp",
+instrumentRef: {symbol: ".SPY260828P769", strike: 769, type: "put",
+                expiration: "2026-08-28", underlying: "SPY",
+                occ: "O:SPY260828P00769000"},   // MUST be object, not string
+levels: {
+  entry: {zone: {low: 0.76, high: 0.92}, type: "limit", minBidSize: 50},  // premium zone
+  stop: {offset: 0.18},            // points from fill (premium pts for options)
+  targets: [{offset: 0.20, portionPct: 67}, {offset: 0.40, portionPct: 33}],  // max 2
+  timeStopSec: 900,                // REQUIRED for scalp/day; in-trade from fill
+  breakevenAfterT1: true
+},
+risk: {maxDollars: 70},            // engine computes qty = maxDollars/(offset×100) — NEVER send qty
+timeLimitSec: 780,                 // ENTRY WINDOW seconds (NOT the time stop)
+rationale: "≥40 chars — put SPY-level triggers, invalidations, hard walls, order-safety directives here"
+```
+Validation gotchas (each cost an iteration): `tradeStyle` not `style`; no top-level entry/stop/target/qty; `instrumentRef` object not string; engine enforces **R:R > 1 — every target offset must exceed the stop offset**.
+Response: planId `spy-<epoch-ms>`, status draft in PLANS/. SPY-level triggers go in rationale.
+
+## 3. Arm (the one unverified link — TEST FIRST, outside a live window)
+Record response says: "Propose an arm trade-action card — the app runs the pack preflight, verifies the stream, starts the preview belt. Do NOT call record_preflight (cockpit packs), do NOT start belt jobs yourself."
+- Arm card does NOT auto-render in the cockpit UI (confirmed 2026-08-28: cockpit open+connected, no card).
+- **Working hypothesis:** arm via the Live Trading window's own MARI chat — type `arm <planId>`. Cockpit agent (locked to the pack) proposes the Arm card → tap Arm (preflight auto-runs) → tap Enter.
+- NEVER fake arming from main chat (`update_plan status:"open"` skips preflight/stream verify — dangerous). Main-window MARI cannot arm; cockpit orchestrator owns execution.
+
+## 4. Manage (standing protocol — member directives, encode in rationale every time)
+1. On fill: verify BOTH working and filled orders. Stop must read **SELL TO CLOSE <qty>** — never sell-to-open, never a short entry.
+2. T1 fills → scale stop to remaining qty (+ breakevenAfterT1 moves it to BE). T2/stop-out → **cancel ALL working orders the instant flat.** Working + filled checked both after every event. No orphans, ever.
+3. Walls: `timeStopSec` from fill + explicit wall-clock hard flat in rationale. Bail on tape deterioration before the stop (slow grind back = failed setup).
+4. Pre-entry invalidations: structure reclaim / VWAP reclaim / no trigger by window close → no trade. **Stale plan = close clean, never chase** (2026-08-28: closed un-filled at 3:00 wall, $0 cost).
+
+## 15-min target math (10–25% premium band)
+- 0DTE ATM-ish premium P, delta Δ: +20% ≈ 0.20·P / Δ SPY move. At P≈$0.85, Δ≈−0.50 → ~$0.34 SPY. Routine in 15 min on a break.
+- Engine R:R rule forces target offset > stop offset: size stop −18 to −22% and T1 +24 to +26% to stay inside the band AND clear R:R>1 (verified combo: stop 0.18 / T1 0.20 / T2 0.40 on ~$0.84 fill).